The two economies are so interconnected that a diplomatic and trade breakdown would impose unbearable costs on ordinary people in both nations. President Trump is right to roll out the red carpet for Xi Jinping.

This week, President Donald Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping to the White House with full honors.

A spectacular military review, a lavish state dinner and plenty of warm words about friendship. Xi brought a message of his own: The United States and China stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.

Both leaders are correct: China and the U.S. are partners in a million ways. After decades of cooperation, the two economies have become inextricably — and perhaps permanently — entwined.

Trump is correct to give Xi Jinping a hero’s welcome in Washington: Xi is correct in admitting the truth about relations between the U.S. and China.

Everything to gain, everything to lose.

Some Americans — and others — understandably object to the red carpet. China threatens Taiwan, supplies chemicals used to make deadly drugs, and stands accused of stealing American intellectual property on a weekly basis. Its trade practices have helped hollow out American industries. 

None of those concerns disappears because two presidents shake hands. But neither does the danger of letting the relationship collapse. 

The stakes of the relationship are incalcuable. They reach factory workers in China, farmers in Iowa, American families buying household goods and scientists trying to build the next generation of technology.

It’s easy to talk about “decoupling” as though two enormous economies could simply unplug from each other. In reality, they have spent decades building around each other’s markets, materials, factories and knowledge. Even after a sharp decline, U.S.–China trade in goods and services totaled nearly $495 billion in 2025.

Now imagine relations deteriorating until all trade stops. American businesses in China are seized. Embassies close. Ships are turned away. Neither country fires a shot, but both stand one mistake from war.

Here at home, stores would initially sell what they already had. Then certain goods would become harder to find or more expensive. Manufacturers could halt production for lack of a single component. Farmers would lose customers. Families with relatives across the Pacific would struggle to travel, send money or obtain help in an emergency.

In China, workers who make goods for American buyers could see their hours cut or their factories close. Their lost wages would hurt nearby shops, landlords and restaurants. Beijing could try to find other markets, but that would be difficult to do overnight, especially when weak domestic demand has already made exports an important support for China’s economy.

The lasting cost could be even greater than the first shock. American researchers can design remarkable new products, but they must also build and test them. If a critical material is unavailable, engineers spend their time redesigning yesterday’s product instead of inventing tomorrow’s. New suppliers can be developed; mines, processing plants and skilled workforces cannot be summoned instantly.

The U.S. Geological Survey identifies China as a major source of several minerals on which American industry depends.

That does not mean America must accept permanent dependence or surrender its leverage. It means building alternatives before a crisis forces the issue. Rebuilding domestic production, protecting American inventions and securing critical supply chains would make the country stronger at the negotiating table. Maintaining contact with Xi does not weaken that effort. It gives Trump a way to pursue it without making a disastrous break the only available outcome.

Hard questions remain.

Like Taiwan. Xi cannot reasonably expect Americans to treat his calls for friendship as reassurance while Beijing reserves the right to take the island by force. Trump should preserve credible deterrence and make clear that trade cannot purchase American silence on security. He should also press China on drug precursors, intellectual property theft and any assistance that prolongs the war with Iran.

Still, diplomacy is most necessary when differences are serious. Trump and Xi need not agree about ideology, territorial claims or the future of AI to agree that a trade collapse or shooting war would harm millions of people neither leader will ever meet.

The two presidents extended their trade truce by two months. That is a small result, but small results can keep a path open to larger ones. The pageantry will be worthwhile if it leads to firmer rules, safer competition and agreements that can be checked — not merely another photograph of two smiling leaders.

Pursuing peace is not a concession to China. It is a responsibility to Americans, just as avoiding catastrophe is a responsibility Xi bears toward his own people. 

Our fates, for better or worse, depend on each other.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)